If handguns were illegalized in the US, the gun-related deaths would probably stay on the same level for a series of years before the number of seized and destroyed illegal/unregistered handguns has reached a high enough total to be noticed on the black market, then gun-related deaths will start to decrease.
An option would also be to place extreme taxes on handgun-calibre ammunition to reduce the ammount of ammo in circulation. A plus on that is that criminals will be forced to reload used ammo, increasing the risks of critical malfunctions in their weapons and decreasing the effectiveness of their ammo considderably at the same time.
Empire, I'm glad you put the time and thought into compiling this scenario, but I'm afraid it's highly flawed. In reality, when handguns become illegal in the US, they become only available on the black market. Well, duh, right? But tell me, who is involved in the black market? Gangsters, drug-dealers, people who don't obey laws... the same people we don't want with guns in their hands. By you admitting that we will never be able to completely destroy the black market, you're accepting that your theory is useless. And of course, history shows that in every country, in every age, there was a black market. That's reality. No one's perfect. And certainly no entire society is perfect. We can also see through history that no commodity, no matter how illegal, could be kept off the black market. Look at the drug market of today: if authorities can't keep drugs off the street, how are they going to do any better with handguns, especially considering that handguns aren't consumable (in the economic sense of the word)?
So, we do know that there will always be a black market. We also know that as soon as handguns become illegal, they will become a prime comodity in this market. This equals "bad guys" having handguns, and law-abiding citizens going without. And what is the harm in this? There is no better example than the Laws of Nature: a predator will only exert enough effort in securing its prey as it thinks will reward it in the end. This is self-explainable: the predator will always go after the prey who offers the least resistance, and thus requires the least effort. Our society contains similar "predators," those who will ignore the law and hurt and deprive the innocent for their own selfish motives. Just as water will seek its lowest level, these 'predators' will sadly always go after those those who offer the least resistance.
Taking all this into account, do you think a burglar will attempt to break into houses in a neighborhood that is known to have armed home-owners? I highly doubt it. Home invaders will "case" their targets thoroughly in most cases, and they will definitely want to know whether they could be dealing with an armed home-owner in a worst-case scenario.
Facts, statistics, and common sense proove that taking guns away from one side and giving them to the other won't prevent bloodshed. Because there will always be the law-abiders and the lawless, and government in reality can only control the actions of the former, gun-control proponents are technically fighting for the benefit of the drug dealers, murderers, home invaders, etc., by rendering the law-abiding citizens defenseless.
Furthermore, this right we are discussing, the right of the people to bear arms, is just that: a RIGHT. If only for this reason, I am not willing to surrender it to the outstretched arms of nanny government. I feel extreme pity for those of you who live in Europe, or elsewhere around the globe, who cannot understand how we Americans can hold a Constitutional right in such high regard and esteem. But it is exactly that difference that makes the USA the greatest nation on earth. We live by principles, fight for principles, and die for principles. If any of you feel that holding high regard for words on a page is senseless, then you obviously have never felt the true exhiliration of freedom. I take my rights seriously, and if you don't, well, that's your decision.
Please note, by being pro-gun, I am not trying to force everyone to go buy a gun and sleep with it at night. I am only saying that I think this is something that government should not concern itself with any more than it already has, especially if it means limiting the rights of the non-problematic portion of society, the sect that will actually live by the law.