IDEA
The island of Wembetir off the coast of Sovereign Dixie (Pelargir Province), with its capital of Wembar, did not become independent when Pelargir did.
While the United Empire of Novmir did seize it from Eluvatar, Eluvatar took it right back in the chaos of the civil war which led to the separation of Sovereign Dixie from the United Empire.
Sometime in the 1980s, with Sovereign Dixie under a jingoistic regime seeking martial glory, a sudden invasion is launched. Far away from Eluvatar's core interests, the island was lightly defended and falls quickly.
Possible outcomes:
Dixie humiliated: A devastating counterattack showcasing the continued power of the Eluvataran Royal Navy, making some use of allied resources, smashes the CSSD navy (improperly maintained due to corruption) and the dissatisfied conscripts on the island. As a result, a feeling of imperial glory suffuses Eluvatar, causing the government to pursue more foreign adventures and increase the defense budget. In Dixie, the defeat leads to a change in regime and reforms to the political and military system. Never again will the Confederacy be so humiliated. Some seek another try, when better prepared.
Dixie defeated: A well-lead counterattack displaying the continued power of the Eluvataran Royal Navy, making some use of allied resources, drives off the CSSD navy (which had some problems due to nepotism / corruption, but largely acquitted itself well) and surrounds and forces the surrender of the land forces on the island. As a result, the prestige of the military is improved in Eluvatar, but heavy casualties lead to continued controversy. In Dixie, the setback leads to reforms, but not drastic ones. There is little interest in trying again for the island.
Stalemate: A well-lead counterattack displaying the continued relevance of the Eluvataran Royal Navy, making some use of allied resources, manages to establish a beachhead and secure supply lines against the CSSD navy (which largely acquitted itself well) but has to continue to face challenges to keep supply lines open. Land forces of both powers dig in on the island, and are unable to advance far. In the end, both sides agree to a ceasefire and mediated settlement.
Eluvatar defeated: A well-lead counterattack attempts to show the continued relevance of the Eluvataran Navy, and allows for a landing. However, the fleet is soon driven off by a robust counter-counterattack by the CSSD navy and the Eluvataran forces on land are forced to surrender. In exchange for the return of prisoners, Eluvatar agrees to cede all claims to the island in a peace deal. The government in Eluvatar falls and a new election is held, bringing the opposition to power on a platform of withdrawing from legacies of imperialism and focusing on developments nearer the homeland.
Eluvatar humiliated: In a calamitous folly, the Eluvataran Navy sails forth to counterattack but is ignominously defeated by a more modern CSSD navy. With no capability to continue prosecuting the war, the government agrees to a ceasefire before falling and holding a new election. Anger against the humiliation takes root and the new government focuses on building a new and more modern navy to face the colonial upstarts.
Eluvatar blinks: The government considers its options and decides that the accomplit is indeed fait and there's no point sending sailors to die in a far away land Eluvatar had little business governing in the first place. Negotiating the freedom of islanders to migrate to Eluvatar if they wish to, all claims to the island are ceded to the CSSD.
Thoughts?
